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A project manager is presented with the following new risks and opportunities : Threat A has a90% probability will cost US$50,000. Threat B has a30% probability and will cost USS300,000. Opportunity A has a50% probability and will yield a savings of US$100,000. Opportunity B has a15% probability and will yield a savings of US$125,000. Using expected monetary value analysis, which risk or opportunity should the project manager consider first?项目经理面对以下新风险和机会: 并将花费US$50,000的成本。 并将花费US$300,000的成本。 并将节省US$100,000。 并将节省US$125,000。 使用预期的货币价值分析,项目经理应首先考虑哪一项风险和机会?
A. Threat A  威胁A
B. Threat B 威胁B
C. Opportunity B 机会B
D. Opportunity A 机会A
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风险A的EMV=50000*90%=45000;风险B的EMV=300000*30%=90000;机会A的EVM=100000*50%=50000;机会B的EMV=125000*15%=18750;风险B造成的损失是最大的,超过机会A和机会B,所以应该要优先考虑对该风险的应对,而不是先去把控机会。

To determine which risk or opportunity the project manager should consider first using expected monetary value (EMV) analysis, we calculate the EMV for each threat and opportunity. The EMV is calculated by multiplying the probability of each event by its potential impact (cost or savings).

1. **Threat A:**
- Probability: 90% or 0.9
- Impact: Cost of US$50,000
- EMV = 0.9 * (-50,000) = -$45,000

2. **Threat B:**
- Probability: 30% or 0.3
- Impact: Cost of US$300,000
- EMV = 0.3 * (-300,000) = -$90,000

3. **Opportunity A:**
- Probability: 50% or 0.5
- Impact: Savings of US$100,000
- EMV = 0.5 * 100,000 = $50,000

4. **Opportunity B:**
- Probability: 15% or 0.15
- Impact: Savings of US$125,000
- EMV = 0.15 * 125,000 = $18,750

Based on the EMV calculations, the project manager should consider:

- **Opportunity A** first, as it has the highest positive EMV of $50,000.

Opportunity A provides the greatest potential benefit to the project when considering both likelihood and impact. Therefore, the correct answer is **D: Opportunity A 机会A**.