CDA认证考试模拟题2：最佳EMV分析-CDA考试官方模拟题库

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Cheap imported goods have seriously affected the company's business. The company formed a project team to develop new product plans, hoping to improve on the current revenue of $100 million. The project team drafted two product plans:Product A has a 40% chance of raising revenue to $150 million, but there is a 30% chance that the claim will reduce revenue to $60 million. There is also a 30% probability that there is no impact on income.Product B has a 50% chance of raising revenue to $130 million, but there is a 20% chance that revenue will be reduced to $80 million due to warranty claims and litigation. There is still a 30% chance that income will remain the same. Which product offers the best EMV?廉价的进口商品已经严重影响公司的业务。公司组建一支项目团队,开发新产品方案,希望在目前的$1亿营业收入基础上有所提高。项目团队起草了两套产品方案：产品A有40%的可能性将收入提高到$1.5亿,但有30%可能性因保证索赔使收入会降低至$6000万，还有30%可能性对收入无影响。产品B有50%的可能性将收入提高到$1.3亿,但有20%可能性因保证索赔和诉讼使收入会降低至$8000万，还有30%的可能性收入将保持不变。哪项产品能够提供最佳的 EMV?

A. Product A, EMV is $108 million 产品A, EMV为$1.08亿

B. Product B, EMV is $111 million 产品B, EMV为$1.11亿

C. Product A, EMV is $111 million 产品A, EMV为$1.11亿

D. Product B, EMV is $108 million 产品B, EMV为$1.08亿

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决策树分析：方案A：EMV=40%*1.5+30%*0.6+30%*1=$1.08亿, 方案 B：EMV=50%*1.3+20%*0.8+30%*1=$1.11亿

为了确定哪项产品提供最佳的期望货币价值（EMV），我们需要计算每个产品的EMV。

首先，计算产品A的EMV：

- 提高到$1.5亿的概率是40%：
\[ 0.4 \times 150 = 60 \]
- 降低到$6000万的概率是30%：
\[ 0.3 \times 60 = 18 \]
- 收入无变化（$1亿）的概率是30%：
\[ 0.3 \times 100 = 30 \]

产品A的EMV计算如下：
\[ 60 + 18 + 30 = 108 \]

所以，产品A的EMV为$1.08亿。

接下来，计算产品B的EMV：

- 提高到$1.3亿的概率是50%：
\[ 0.5 \times 130 = 65 \]
- 降低到$8000万的概率是20%：
\[ 0.2 \times 80 = 16 \]
- 收入无变化（$1亿）的概率是30%：
\[ 0.3 \times 100 = 30 \]

产品B的EMV计算如下：
\[ 65 + 16 + 30 = 111 \]

所以，产品B的EMV为$1.11亿。

根据计算，产品B的EMV高于产品A，因此产品B提供最佳的EMV。

正确答案是：
B: Product B, EMV is $111 million 产品B, EMV为$1.11亿。